Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna; Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna; Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna

doi:doi:10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

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Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna, Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna, Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna

Published in Psychology and Behavioral Sciences (Volume 6, Issue 5)

Received: 22 June 2017 Accepted: 7 July 2017 Published: 19 October 2017

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Abstract

In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine the study of youth morbidity is particularly important due to the unfavorable demographic conditions in the country: increasing mortality and reducing fertility. In the light of this problem, approaches to the analysis and prediction of morbidity and disability of young people in Ukraine have been developed. The analysis of morbidity dynamics is done with our own design, using software that is the part of the Information technology of disability dynamics analysis. The results of analysis of the monitoring functioning of child morbidity in Ukraine, let the forecast be carried out in a short time series. The prevalence of all diseases In Ukraine for 2008 – 2016 years among adolescents 15–18 years increased by 38,87% (from 17037,06 to 23659,1), morbidity – by 32,32% (from 9444,78 to 12497,6 for 10 thousand population). During this period it took place the reduction of primary disability of people over 18 years among adult and working population. The highest among persons aged 18 years are the numbers of newly recognized disabilities in classes: mental and behavioral disorders (1431), congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal disorders (1196), nervous system diseases (836 cases).

Published in	Psychology and Behavioral Sciences (Volume 6, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15
Page(s)	105-109
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Morbidity, Disability, Prediction, Epidemiology

References

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[3]	European strategy for child and adolescent health and development. Copenhagen, 2005, 23 р.
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[5]	Ipatov A. V., Drozdova I. V. “Information technology analysis of the dynamics of disability”. Dnepropetrovsk, 2012, 269 р.
[6]	Kendall M., Stewart A. “Multivariate statistical analysis and time series”. Moscow, 1976, 736 p.
[7]	Schudro, S. A. (2011). Criterial value of social-hygienic factors and conditions of study in health formation of adolescents studying in comprehensive schools. Dissertation for the degree of doctor of medical sciences on specialty 14.02.01 – hygiene and occupational diseases (medical sciences). – Hygiene and medical ecology Institute of the NAMS of Ukraine, Kiev.
[8]	Lukashin Yu. P. Adaptive methods of short-term forecasting of time series: a tutorial. Moscow, 2003, 416 р.
[9]	The main indicators of disability and the activities of medical and social expert commissions of Ukraine for 2016 (Analytical and information guide). Dnipro, 2017, 168 p.
[10]	N. Ya. Panchishin, V. L. Smirnova, O. Ya. Galicka-Kharkhalis (2011). Morbidity of child’s population of Ukraine and factors, which influencing on children health. Topical issues of pediatrics, obstetrics and gynecology, 2: 13-132.
[11]	Human development in Ukraine: the transformation of living standards and regional dispositions (collective monograph), Kiev, 2012, 436 p.
[12]	Statistics of the incidence of children in Ukraine. Website: http://medstat.gov.ua/ukr/statreports.html
[13]	Strong M. A. The effects of adult mortality on infant and child mortality. Unpublished paper presented at the Committee on Population Workshop on the Consequences of Pregnancy. Maternal Morbidity and Mortality for Women, their Families and Society. Washington. Website: http: www.nap.edu/openbook.php record_id.
[14]	United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Global Strategy for Women’s and children’s health (2011). – New York: Unated Nations, 2010. Website: http://www.un.org/sg/hf/Global_StrategyEN.pdf

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Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna, Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna, Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna. (2017). Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine. Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, 6(5), 105-109. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

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ACS Style

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna; Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna; Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna. Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine. Psychol. Behav. Sci. 2017, 6(5), 105-109. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

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AMA Style

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna, Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna, Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna. Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine. Psychol Behav Sci. 2017;6(5):105-109. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

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@article{10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15,
  author = {Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna and Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna and Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna},
  title = {Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine},
  journal = {Psychology and Behavioral Sciences},
  volume = {6},
  number = {5},
  pages = {105-109},
  doi = {10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.pbs.20170605.15},
  abstract = {In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine the study of youth morbidity is particularly important due to the unfavorable demographic conditions in the country: increasing mortality and reducing fertility. In the light of this problem, approaches to the analysis and prediction of morbidity and disability of young people in Ukraine have been developed. The analysis of morbidity dynamics is done with our own design, using software that is the part of the Information technology of disability dynamics analysis. The results of analysis of the monitoring functioning of child morbidity in Ukraine, let the forecast be carried out in a short time series. The prevalence of all diseases In Ukraine for 2008 – 2016 years among adolescents 15–18 years increased by 38,87% (from 17037,06 to 23659,1), morbidity – by 32,32% (from 9444,78 to 12497,6 for 10 thousand population). During this period it took place the reduction of primary disability of people over 18 years among adult and working population. The highest among persons aged 18 years are the numbers of newly recognized disabilities in classes: mental and behavioral disorders (1431), congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal disorders (1196), nervous system diseases (836 cases).},
 year = {2017}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine
AU  - Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna
AU  - Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna
AU  - Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna
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DO  - 10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15
T2  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JF  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JO  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
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PB  - Science Publishing Group
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AB  - In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine the study of youth morbidity is particularly important due to the unfavorable demographic conditions in the country: increasing mortality and reducing fertility. In the light of this problem, approaches to the analysis and prediction of morbidity and disability of young people in Ukraine have been developed. The analysis of morbidity dynamics is done with our own design, using software that is the part of the Information technology of disability dynamics analysis. The results of analysis of the monitoring functioning of child morbidity in Ukraine, let the forecast be carried out in a short time series. The prevalence of all diseases In Ukraine for 2008 – 2016 years among adolescents 15–18 years increased by 38,87% (from 17037,06 to 23659,1), morbidity – by 32,32% (from 9444,78 to 12497,6 for 10 thousand population). During this period it took place the reduction of primary disability of people over 18 years among adult and working population. The highest among persons aged 18 years are the numbers of newly recognized disabilities in classes: mental and behavioral disorders (1431), congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal disorders (1196), nervous system diseases (836 cases).
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Author Information

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna

Psycho-neurology, Psychotherapy & Medical Psychology Group of the Department, State Institution “Ukrainian State Institute of Medical and Social Problems of Disability Ministry of Public Health of Ukraine”, Dnipro City, Ukraine
Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna

Psycho-neurology, Psychotherapy & Medical Psychology Group of the Department, State Institution “Ukrainian State Institute of Medical and Social Problems of Disability Ministry of Public Health of Ukraine”, Dnipro City, Ukraine
Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna

Psycho-neurology, Psychotherapy & Medical Psychology Group of the Department, State Institution “Ukrainian State Institute of Medical and Social Problems of Disability Ministry of Public Health of Ukraine”, Dnipro City, Ukraine

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APA Style

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna, Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna, Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna. (2017). Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine. Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, 6(5), 105-109. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

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ACS Style

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna; Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna; Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna. Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine. Psychol. Behav. Sci. 2017, 6(5), 105-109. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

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AMA Style

Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna, Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna, Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna. Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine. Psychol Behav Sci. 2017;6(5):105-109. doi: 10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15

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@article{10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15,
  author = {Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna and Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna and Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna},
  title = {Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine},
  journal = {Psychology and Behavioral Sciences},
  volume = {6},
  number = {5},
  pages = {105-109},
  doi = {10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.pbs.20170605.15},
  abstract = {In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine the study of youth morbidity is particularly important due to the unfavorable demographic conditions in the country: increasing mortality and reducing fertility. In the light of this problem, approaches to the analysis and prediction of morbidity and disability of young people in Ukraine have been developed. The analysis of morbidity dynamics is done with our own design, using software that is the part of the Information technology of disability dynamics analysis. The results of analysis of the monitoring functioning of child morbidity in Ukraine, let the forecast be carried out in a short time series. The prevalence of all diseases In Ukraine for 2008 – 2016 years among adolescents 15–18 years increased by 38,87% (from 17037,06 to 23659,1), morbidity – by 32,32% (from 9444,78 to 12497,6 for 10 thousand population). During this period it took place the reduction of primary disability of people over 18 years among adult and working population. The highest among persons aged 18 years are the numbers of newly recognized disabilities in classes: mental and behavioral disorders (1431), congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal disorders (1196), nervous system diseases (836 cases).},
 year = {2017}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecasting the Dynamics of Morbidity/Disability of Young People in Ukraine
AU  - Drozdova Irina Vladimirovna
AU  - Khramtsova Victoriia Victorovna
AU  - Honchar Yuliia Alexandrovna
Y1  - 2017/10/19
PY  - 2017
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15
T2  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JF  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
JO  - Psychology and Behavioral Sciences
SP  - 105
EP  - 109
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7845
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.pbs.20170605.15
AB  - In the current period of health care system reform in Ukraine the study of youth morbidity is particularly important due to the unfavorable demographic conditions in the country: increasing mortality and reducing fertility. In the light of this problem, approaches to the analysis and prediction of morbidity and disability of young people in Ukraine have been developed. The analysis of morbidity dynamics is done with our own design, using software that is the part of the Information technology of disability dynamics analysis. The results of analysis of the monitoring functioning of child morbidity in Ukraine, let the forecast be carried out in a short time series. The prevalence of all diseases In Ukraine for 2008 – 2016 years among adolescents 15–18 years increased by 38,87% (from 17037,06 to 23659,1), morbidity – by 32,32% (from 9444,78 to 12497,6 for 10 thousand population). During this period it took place the reduction of primary disability of people over 18 years among adult and working population. The highest among persons aged 18 years are the numbers of newly recognized disabilities in classes: mental and behavioral disorders (1431), congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal disorders (1196), nervous system diseases (836 cases).
VL  - 6
IS  - 5
ER  -

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