Ethiopia was one of the countries least developed and it is among the countries in the bottom in the rank of GDP’s that UN lists. However, nowadays Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. In Ethiopia much effort has been made to build the national economy. Ethiopia has made significant strides towards becoming a middle income country by 2025. This paper provides an overview of Box-Jenkins model for temporal data. In this research we used time series analysis of some of Ethiopian economic features such as GDP, GDP growth rate and inflation rate. Box-Jenkins model was used to analyze 35-year data (1981-2015). GDP, GDP growth rate, and inflation rate were variables under the study to describe persistence change and to forecast future behaviors. We tried to find best model for description and predictive model for these series using different model selection tools. We compared different orders of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) using AIC, BIC and MSE to fit the observed data. The best from compared was ARIMA (2, 2, 2) for GDP, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for GDP growth rate and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for inflation rate. Since forecasting is important for many purposes, we forecast the series from best ARIMA models. Five year forecast showing that GDP is an increasing trend and the average forecast of GDP rates is showing an average of 10.028.
| Published in | American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 9, Issue 3) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12 |
| Page(s) | 37-46 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group |
ACF, PACF, ARIMA, ARMA, Inflation, GDP, Forecast, Box-Jenkins, Box-Ljung
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APA Style
Tofik Mussa Reshid. (2020). Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 9(3), 37-46. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12
ACS Style
Tofik Mussa Reshid. Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2020, 9(3), 37-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12
AMA Style
Tofik Mussa Reshid. Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2020;9(3):37-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12,
author = {Tofik Mussa Reshid},
title = {Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis},
journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
volume = {9},
number = {3},
pages = {37-46},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20200903.12},
abstract = {Ethiopia was one of the countries least developed and it is among the countries in the bottom in the rank of GDP’s that UN lists. However, nowadays Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. In Ethiopia much effort has been made to build the national economy. Ethiopia has made significant strides towards becoming a middle income country by 2025. This paper provides an overview of Box-Jenkins model for temporal data. In this research we used time series analysis of some of Ethiopian economic features such as GDP, GDP growth rate and inflation rate. Box-Jenkins model was used to analyze 35-year data (1981-2015). GDP, GDP growth rate, and inflation rate were variables under the study to describe persistence change and to forecast future behaviors. We tried to find best model for description and predictive model for these series using different model selection tools. We compared different orders of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) using AIC, BIC and MSE to fit the observed data. The best from compared was ARIMA (2, 2, 2) for GDP, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for GDP growth rate and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for inflation rate. Since forecasting is important for many purposes, we forecast the series from best ARIMA models. Five year forecast showing that GDP is an increasing trend and the average forecast of GDP rates is showing an average of 10.028.},
year = {2020}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis AU - Tofik Mussa Reshid Y1 - 2020/04/28 PY - 2020 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12 DO - 10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12 T2 - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics JF - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics JO - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics SP - 37 EP - 46 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2326-9006 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12 AB - Ethiopia was one of the countries least developed and it is among the countries in the bottom in the rank of GDP’s that UN lists. However, nowadays Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. In Ethiopia much effort has been made to build the national economy. Ethiopia has made significant strides towards becoming a middle income country by 2025. This paper provides an overview of Box-Jenkins model for temporal data. In this research we used time series analysis of some of Ethiopian economic features such as GDP, GDP growth rate and inflation rate. Box-Jenkins model was used to analyze 35-year data (1981-2015). GDP, GDP growth rate, and inflation rate were variables under the study to describe persistence change and to forecast future behaviors. We tried to find best model for description and predictive model for these series using different model selection tools. We compared different orders of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) using AIC, BIC and MSE to fit the observed data. The best from compared was ARIMA (2, 2, 2) for GDP, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for GDP growth rate and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for inflation rate. Since forecasting is important for many purposes, we forecast the series from best ARIMA models. Five year forecast showing that GDP is an increasing trend and the average forecast of GDP rates is showing an average of 10.028. VL - 9 IS - 3 ER -
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